Florida

Perry leads in Florida, Romney does better against Obama

The latest Quinnipiac poll out of Florida, taken prior to last night’s date and the first since Rick Perry entered the race, shows the Texas Governor with a slight lead over Mitt Romney.

Here’s how the field stacks up in Florida right now:

  • Rick Perry: 31%
  • Mitt Romney: 22%
  • Newt Gingrich: 8%
  • Herman Cain: 8%
  • Michele Bachmann: 7%
  • Ron Paul: 6%
  • Jon Huntsman: 2%
  • Rick Santorum: 2%
  • Other: 1%
  • WV/DK/NA: 14%

The poll also shows Barack Obama’s numbers falling off significantly, leaving Republicans with an opportunity to pick up a much needed state:

Obama’s approval rating in the state continues to slide, falling below 40 percent. Now, just 39 percent of all Florida voters approve of the job Obama is doing, while 57 percent disapprove. In early August, Obama’s approval rating in the state stood at 44 percent.

A majority of voters now feel that Obama does not deserve to be re-elected, his worst score on that measure. Only 41 percent of voters feel he does deserve to be re-elected, including just 39 percent of independents.

Even though he is leading among Republicans in Florida, Perry trails Obama in a potential head-to-head matchup in the state (as you can see below). That doesn’t help ease concerns that he is unelectable, even though Obama’s numbers are lagging so badly. Romney on the other hand has a 7 point lead over Obama.

Barack Obama v. Rick Perry

  • Obama: 44%
  • Perry: 42%
  • Other: 2%
  • WV/DK/NA: 12%

Barack Obama v. Mitt Romney

TIME magazine riding the anti-gun pony

Time magazine is riding the anti-gun pony.  At least writer Adam Cohen is.  The article starts out talking about the courts overturning a gag order which prevented doctors in Florida from asking about guns.  In truth, I oppose such laws.  My doctor is free to ask any question he wants, and I’m free to tell him it’s none of his business.  However, the article argues that doctors need to know such things.

Pediatricians routinely inquire about health-and-safety risks to their young patients. That can include whether a child wears a bicycle helmet, whether there are household chemicals or alcohol within reach — and whether there are firearms in the home. More than 3,000 children and teens were killed by guns, and more than 20,000 injured, in recent years, and the rate of child deaths, injuries and suicides is far higher in homes where guns are present.

Truly alarming.  Of course, whether a gun is in the house is irrelevant.  Whether it is properly stored is a different matter.  A properly stored and secured weapon has never been used by a child for anything.  Doctors don’t need to know which cleaning agents I have in my house.  They need to know if my child has access to them.  All my doctor needs to know about my guns is that my child can’t get to them.

As for his statistics, I simply want to point out that correlation does not equal causation.  The truth of the matter is that these statistics often seem to miss that suicides are not caused by guns.  A determined person will find a way to kill themselves.  Injuries are the result of improper storage of firearms or at time the result of pure negligence.  However, if one were to compare the rates of gun causalities to automobiles, then perhaps we need tougher car control measures.

Another new poll out of Florida shows GOP hopefuls strength against Obama

As noted yesterday, Magellan Strategies, a Republican firm, put out a poll on Wednesday showing Mitt Romney and Rick Perry doing very well against President Barack Obama in Florida. Well, that poll isn’t a fluke. Mason-Dixon, a national non-partisan firm, released numbers from the Sunshine State showing somewhat similar results, with Romney doing the best among the three candidates polled.

Barack Obama v. Mitt Romney

  • Obama: 43%
  • Romney: 51%

Barack Obama v. Rick Perry

  • Obama: 45%
  • Perry: 46%

Barack Obama v. Michele Bachmann

  • Obama: 46%
  • Bachmann: 44%

Magellan’s numbers may have been somewhat inflated, as I acknowledged yesterday, but this about what I expected. We also learned yesterday that Obama is struggling in New Jersey, a traditionally blue state, where 47% of voters say he doesn’t deserve re-election and a majority disapprove of his job performance.

Mason-Dixon also had numbers specific to the Republican primary in Florida, which shows Romney leading Perry but 7 points and Michele Bachmann a distant third:

Poll: Trouble for Obama in Florida

President Barack Obama, would be a tight race for re-election against three of his potential opponents, is in troubled waters in Florida, a crucial swing state that he carried in 2008. According to a recent poll from Magellan Strategies, Obama is trailing Rick Perry and Mitt Romney and in the margin of error against Michele Bachmann.

Barack Obama v. Mitt Romney

  • Obama: 39%
  • Romney: 49%
  • Undecided: 12%

Barack Obama v. Rick Perry

  • Obama: 39%
  • Perry: 46%
  • Undecided: 15%

Barack Obama v. Michele Bachmann

  • Obama: 42%
  • Bachmann: 43%
  • Undecided: 15%

Magellan is a GOP firm, so take it for what it is, but I can’t see these numbers being too far off. And before you say a conservative like Perry can’t win in Florida, see Marco Rubio’s win last year.

CPAC Florida is coming up in September

In case you haven’t heard (and we’re a little late on posting about this), the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) is going on the road beginning in September 23rd in Orlando, Florida:

This is the first time in the 47-year history of the conference that a version of the convention it will be held outside of Washington, D.C. “CPAC FL” will be held in Orlando on September 23 the day after the Fox News’ GOP Presidential debate.

“It was about time that we take the conservative message on the road and go to the states,” said CPAC director, Chris Malagisi.

CPAC FL will not replace the high-profile conservative gathering that takes place in Washington, D.C. each year. Rather, it will serve as an additional resource for grassroots activists.

ACU Communications Director Kristy Campbell said the idea of a regional conference was a part of Chairman Al Cardenas vision for the organization when he was elected in February. Cardenas succeeded David Keene, who had been chairman of the ACU since 1984.

Campbell said the ACU selected Florida for the conference because it will be a key battleground state in 2012. Obama won the state in 2008 with 51 percent of the vote to Sen. John McCain’s 48 percent.

You can find the list of speakers, package rates and other information at the CPAC-FL website. A few of our contributors were at CPAC in Washington, DC this year. While there were a couple of tense moments due to the divide between conservatives and libertarians, I think we all had a good time and enjoyed drinking and chatting with each other.

Alan Grayson plans comeback (hilarity will no doubt ensue)

Hoping he can manage to get a favorable district during reapportionment, Alan Grayson, who was fired by the voters of Florida’s Eighth Congressional District last year, announced yesterday that he will make another go of it in 2012:

WFTV learned on Monday that former U.S. Congressman Alan Grayson is running for office again.

On Monday, Grayson said he doesn’t plan to do anything different. He said he’s running again because of all the people who have reached out and asked him to. Grayson already raised nearly $100,000 in donations before filing his paperwork on Monday.

“We need somebody who’s gonna stick up for what’s right. Somebody with guts,” Grayson said.
[…]
Grayson said his approach this time around depends on the circumstances, but for the sake of supporters who sent him donations before he announced he’s running again, he said he has no plans to hold back.

“We’re fighting for our survival. We’re fighting for our jobs, our homes. We’re fighting for Social Security and Medicare,” said Grayson.

Grayson may not be running for his old seat with redistricting under way right now, he may end up running for a newly created seat for Orlando. It’s still to early to know who he will be running against.

We knew this was coming. Just days after having his ass handed to him by Daniel Webster, his Republican opponent, Grayson hinted that he would run again.

Weekly Standard: Rudy Giuliani is running for president

Over at the Weekly Standard, Bill Kristol reports that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani will enter the race for the Republican presidential nomination:

I’m told by two reliable sources that Rudy Giuliani intends to run for the GOP nomination for president in 2012. He may throw his hat in the ring soon.

Rudy’s theory of the race: In the fall of 2007, he decided he couldn’t compete with both Mitt Romney and John McCain in New Hampshire, and disastrously decided to try to pull back there and pitch his tent in Florida. This year, he’ll commit everything to New Hampshire, where he thinks he has a good shot at beating Romney—whom he criticized there earlier this week. He then thinks he can beat whichever more socially conservative candidate(s) is left by winning what are still likely to be winner-take-all primaries in big states like California, New York, and New Jersey.

Rudy’s message: I’m tough enough to put our fiscal house in order and to protect us from enemies abroad. The U.S. in 2012 is in bad shape—like New York in 1993. The budget crisis is as severe—and seemingly intractable—as the crime/welfare crisis was in New York then. Rudy dealt with that when people said it couldn’t be done. He’ll deal with this.

ObamaCare has a bad day in the Eleventh District Court of Appeals

Yesterday in Atlanta the Eleventh Circuit Court of Appeals heard the challenge to ObamaCare filed by Florida and joined over time by 25 other states:

Judges on a federal appeals court panel on Wednesday repeatedly raised questions about President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul, expressing unease with the requirement that virtually all Americans carry health insurance or face penalties.

All three judges on the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals panel questioned whether upholding the landmark law could open the door to Congress adopting other sweeping economic mandates.

The Atlanta panel did not immediately rule on the lawsuit brought by 26 states, a coalition of small businesses and private individuals who urged the three to side with a federal judge in Florida who struck down the law.

But the pointed questions about the so-called individual mandate during almost three hours of oral arguments suggests the appeals court panel is considering whether to rule against at least part of the federal law to expand health care coverage to tens of millions of Americans.
[…]
Hull and Dubina asked the lawyers on both sides to focus on a particular outcome: What could happen to the overhaul, they asked separately, if the individual mandate were invalidated but the rest of the package were upheld?

Parts of the overall law should still survive, said government lawyer Katyal, but he warned the judges they’d make a “deep, deep mistake” if the insurance requirement were found to be unconstitutional. He said Congress had the right to regulate what uninsured Americans must buy because they shift $43 billion each year in medical costs to other taxpayers.

Ignorance of the law

It has been said that ignorance of the law is no defense.  If you break the law, you can be prosecuted even if you didn’t know what you did was illegal.  The concept itself makes sense.  After all, how are you supposed to prosecute people if the first thing they say is “I didn’t know it was illegal” and walk away free and clear, only to break another law?  However, there’s a problem with this line of thinking.

Between federal, state, and local governments, there are hundreds of thousands of laws governing our behavior at any given moment.  Some, like murder, are universal wrongs that no one thinks should be legal.  Others are well publicized but relatively minor, like seat belt laws.  Others are more obscure.

In Oklahoma, you can be jailed for making ugly faces at your dog.  In Compton, California, it’s against the law to dance cheek to cheek.  In Florida, you can be fined for falling asleep under a hair drier.  That’s some pretty stupid stuff, but Oklahoma?  Florida?  Obviously, California?  They’re a little off in most of those places, right?

Not so fast.  For example, it’s illegal to use profanity in front of a corps here in the Peach State.  We’re also not allowed to carry an ice cream cone in our back pockets on Sunday.  If you slap a man on the back, you’re a criminal.  See?  We’re not immune to some of this.

Quote of the Day: Charlie Cook on NY-26

Via an excellent article by Jim Antle at The American Spectator, Charlie Cook, one of the best political analysts in the business, believes that drawing conclusions about next year based on a special election isn’t smart:

The NY-26 race featured a former Buchanan Republican turned Democrat turned Tea Party independent Jack Davis. Davis has spent millions in three recent congressional campaigns. Running on conservative themes, he took 9 percent of the vote this time around.

“If anyone can find a race next year with a similar configuration, be my guest and apply the ‘lessons learned’ from this race to that one,” warned political prognosticator Charlie Cook before the special election. “But implying that the outcome of this race portends anything about any conventional race next year amounts to cheap spin and drive-by ‘analysis’ of the most superficial kind, which is sadly becoming all too prevalent in Washington.”

But, as Antle notes, Republicans still have a Medicare problem; and it’s not going away anytime soon. They waited too long to try to fight against the incredibly false and dishonest picture that Democrats were able to create about Rep. Paul Ryan’s plan leading up to NY-26.


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